Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
The US stocks stocks have shown a lack of direction over the course of the trading
BSE Sensex
1
353
37,311
day on Thursday. The major averages have spent the day bouncing back and forth
Nifty
1
104
11,029
across the unchanged line. The Dow was up modestly by 0.4 percent to 25,579 and
Mid Cap
0.9
114
13,477
the Nasdaq was flat at 7,767.
Small Cap
0.4
51
12,570
U.K. markets opened lower on Thursday and stayed that way throughout the session
Bankex
1
313
31,652
on continued concerns about the health of the global economy. The FTSE 100 fell by
1.1 percent to 7,067.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
On domestic front, Indian shares rebounded from their worst fall in over a month on
Dow Jones
0.4
100
25,579
Wednesday as the U.S. announced a delay in the implementation of tariffs on some
Nasdaq
(0.1)
-7
7,767
Chinese products and a lower than expected wholesale price index reading for July
FTSE
(1.1)
-81
7,067
raised hopes of further cuts in interest rates going forward. The benchmark BSE
Nikkei
1
200
20,655
Sensex jumped by 1.0 percent to 37,311.
Hang Seng
0.1
21
25,302
News Analysis
Shanghai Com
0.4
12
2,809
June quarter earnings show no signs of a revival for Indian companies
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,320
949
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
1,150
808
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
145
339
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
5,787
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
NSE
33,437
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
713
867
21.5
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
411
490
19.4
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
174
330
89.9
FII
(437)
(9,156)
59,090
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,433
1,643
14.7
*MFs
2,898
11,665
19,760
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
481
612
27.4
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
IDEA
6
12.2
RELINFRA
49
9.7
JINDALSTEL
104
9.6
KSCL
479
9.0
SPICEJET
139
8.9
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
GICHSGFIN
214
-10.7
JAMNAAUTO
33
-4.9
SUNPHARMA
417
-4.7
GLENMARK
384
-7.9
KNRCON
238
-4.9
As on Aug 14, 2019
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
News Analysis
June quarter earnings show no signs of a revival for Indian
companies
Weak demand, slow private sector capital expenditure, liquidity tightness and
sluggish government spending in the poll season continued to take its toll on
corporate India’s earnings in the June quarter. Net profit fell by 5.23% for the
three months ended 30 June from a year earlier, showed an analysis of 1,284
listed companies.
While the June quarter earnings were incrementally better than those of the
preceding three months, in which they fell by 8.46%, a full recovery may still be far
away. In the same quarter last fiscal, the same set of companies had registered a
yearly earnings growth of 21.1%. Analysts said revenues of some companies were
hit by muted volumes owing to low discretionary spends, rupee fluctuations, slow
progress of the monsoon and delayed private sector spending, while lower prices
of commodities such as crude oil offered some respite. In the June quarter, net
sales grew 4.6%, an eight-quarter low, slower than the 14.2% growth in the
preceding three months, according to data provider Capitaline. This compares to
net sales growth of 19% in first quarter of FY19.
During the quarter, operating profit margin narrowed to 19.42% from 19.56% a
year earlier. The review excludes banks, financial services and oil and gas firms,
as they follow a different revenue model.
Economic and Political News
PM holds meet with Sitharaman and officials to weigh booster dose options
Reduction in use of chemical fertiliser needs a roadmap, say experts
EPFO may appoint HSBC AMC, UTI AMC, SBI MF as fund managers for 3-yr
term
At 1.08%, WPI inflation rate slips to over two-year low in July
Corporate News
Reliance Industries may buy more cable companies to aid JioFiber plans
Market share loss dents Shree Cement's June quarter performance
Arvind SmartSpaces plans expansion, eyes Mumbai and Hyderabad markets
ONGC lines up Rs 83,000 crore investment for 25 new oil, gas projects
Standard Life sells 3.3% stake in HDFC Life Insurance for Rs 3,220 crore
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,830
709
867
22.3
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,69,401
417
490
17.4
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,696
468
612
30.7
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
1,75,676
5,816
8,552
47.1
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,241
556
1,000
80.0
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
19,405
88
130
47.5
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
1,419
169
330
95.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
6,09,715
2,230
2,660
19.3
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
65,069
523
1,050
100.6
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,557
813
910
11.9
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
Bata India
18,644
1,451
1,643
13.3
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
23,613
1,041
1,470
41.2
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
10,588
104
250
140.8
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,929
1,319
1,570
19.0
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic
markets, given its focus on achieving growth
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,482
606
890
47.0
through productivity. Aurobindo will report net
revenue & net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8%
resp. during FY2018-20E. Valuations are
cheap V/s its peers and own fair multiples of
17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
16,717
389
650
67.2
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
8,245
5,948
7,708
29.6
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,211
241
360
49.1
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,475
989
2,178
120.3
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,603
2,021
2,500
23.7
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,781
145
256
76.2
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
20,765
104
210
102.3
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,155
214
424
97.8
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,078
230
549
138.7
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,110
40
95
136.6
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable energy
industry dynamics in favor of wind energy segment
Inox Winds
966
44
120
175.5
viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-In-Tariff
(FIT) to reverse auction regime and Government’s
guidance for 10GW auction in FY19 and FY20
each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
Ashok Leyland
18,332
62
156
149.8
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
17,752
77
NA
NA
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
May 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
May 17, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
May 17, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
May 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
May 24, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
May 25, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
May 26, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
May 28, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
June 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
June 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
June 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
June 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
June 09, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
June 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
June 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,00,995
4.1
5.8
38.8
Russia
Micex
2,559
0.0
1.5
10.9
India
Nifty
11,789
-1.1
1.4
10.0
China
Shanghai Composite
2,979
2.8
-3.6
4.6
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,600
7.2
2.6
9.6
UK
FTSE
7,426
3.7
2.0
-2.8
Japan
Nikkei
21,276
3.3
0.3
-4.6
Germany
DAX
12,399
5.7
7.6
0.8
France
CAC
5,539
6.4
3.5
4.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 06 July, 2019
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
August 16, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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